RUSSIA
BOOSTS ALLIANCE WITH ARMENIA AS U.S. GAINS FOOTHOLD IN GEORGIA
Emil
Danielyan
09.06.2002
A top Russian security official last week announced that Armenia
is seeking fresh arms deliveries from Russia in a bid to boost
its defense capabilities.
Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo, on an
official visit to Yerevan, suggested that Russia would likely
agree to the request. Speaking at a joint news conferences with
Armenian Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, Rushailo said: "We
are now looking into the request of our Armenian colleagues.
Experts from our Defense Ministry and Foreign Affairs Ministry
are now working on that. Our own [Security Council] experts
are also involved in that."
In the meantime, Rushailo said Armenia is due to submit a detailed
list of the defense items it hopes to acquire for its armed
forces. Sarkisian confirmed the information but would not say
what kind of new weaponry the Armenian military is looking to
procure.
Last week's meeting marked the first time senior officials from
the two allied countries publicly discussed an impending weapons
deal. But some analysts say the development is not a surprise,
as it is timed to the arrival of U.S. troops in neighboring
Georgia, which Russia considers within its traditional sphere
of influence. The troops are officially there to train Georgian
security forces in antiterrorism tactics and to develop a local
rapid-reaction force.
Such analysts say the move -- the first-ever U.S. military presence
in the South Caucasus -- has unnerved Russian President Vladimir
Putin, despite public assurances he is not opposed to what Washington
is describing as part of its global antiterrorism campaign.
According to Russian defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, in holding
open arms talks with Yerevan, the Kremlin is trying to "scare
away" the United States by "publicly doing things
that were previously done discreetly or secretly. From Russia's
point of view, what happens now in Georgia has certainly added
to the importance of the Moscow-Yerevan axis because Georgia
is increasingly pursuing what many in Moscow believe is an anti-Russian
policy," Felgenhauer said.
Sergei Shakariants is an expert on ex-Soviet affairs at the
Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS),
a private Yerevan think tank. He likewise noted that Russia
is trying to counter the decline of its influence in the region.
"Russia is emphasizing that it has an ally in the Caucasus,
that that ally must necessarily receive Russian assistance and
that Russia will not stop asserting its interests by helping
those countries that accept those interests," Shakariants
said.
Faced with the weakening of its positions in pro-Western Georgia
and Azerbaijan, Moscow is thus trying to remain a key regional
player by strengthening its ties in Armenia, its sole Caucasian
ally. Armenia's dependence on Russia for security -- necessitated
by its unresolved disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey -- bodes
well for the success of that strategy.
Russian military support was essential for the Armenian victory
in the 1991-94 war over Nagorno-Karabakh. It has enabled Armenia
to build what its leaders say is the strongest army in the South
Caucasus. With renewed fighting in Karabakh remaining a serious
possibility, Yerevan is bound to seize on any opportunity to
reinforce its army. It would also welcome Russian efforts to
contain Turkey, which too is expanding military cooperation
with Georgia and Azerbaijan.
However, the government of President Robert Kocharian is unlikely
to be drawn into a possible new round of the Russia-U.S. rivalry
in the region just as it is trying to develop military cooperation
with the United States and NATO in general.
Armenian officials have indicated recently that global geopolitical
changes since the 11 September terrorist attacks on the U.S.
emphasize the need for greater reliance on the West for defense
and security. They are keen to stress that such an arrangement
will complement, not contradict, the Russian-Armenian military
alliance, pointing to warming ties between Russia and major
Western powers.
But
analysts say the U.S.-Russia rivalry is not necessarily over
as far as the South Caucasus is concerned. Russia's initial
anger over the U.S. announcement in February that it planned
to dispatch up to 200 military instructors to Georgia highlighted
the depth of Russian unease over growing American involvement
in the region.
"Officially, Russia is not against the presence of American
troops in Georgia. Putin has repeatedly reaffirmed Russia's
commitment to Georgia's territorial integrity and independence.
Nevertheless, I am well aware that people close to the Kremlin
call Georgia and [President] Eduard Shevardnadze the most anti-Russian
regime in the world," Felgenhauer said.
The stated goal of the U.S. deployment is to train and equip
Georgia's weak military for antiterrorism operations in the
lawless Pankisi Gorge. The mountainous area bordering Chechnya
is not controlled by the government in Tbilisi. Washington claims
that Islamic militants affiliated with the Al-Qaeda terrorism
network may have found refuge there following the start of the
U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan.
But with Georgian officials ruling out military action in Pankisi
in the near future, many observers believe that the Americans
are simply trying to prop up Shevardnadze and even gain a foothold
in the region. The administration of U.S. President George W.
Bush has begun to provide military aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan
as well, as part of its war against terrorism.
Moscow cannot fail to take notice of that. Shakariants of ACNIS
said Moscow's close relationship with Armenia, especially its
military component, will continue to be the bedrock of Russian
policy on the Caucasus.
Felgenhauer agreed, saying recent shifts have not translated
into major changes in Moscow's Caucasus strategy. "There
have been no big changes there, and [the strengthening of Russian-Armenian
military ties] is a kind of reaffirmation of our previous, traditional
policy on the Transcaucasus," Felgenhauer said.
Emil Danielyan
A
EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL
